Of course, this may not be of interest to anyone but my intention is to hopefully generate some discussion that will either reinforce or challenge my thinking.
I've worked, covering equity markets, for about 11 years. I don't pretend to have seen it all but it has surprised me, that even in this short period I have seen history rhyme several times (to paraphrase Mark Twain).
In the last couple of years, I have come to realise how movements in all asset classes are interdependent. I thus attach a great deal of importance in attempting to understand the macro environment and the relative attractiveness of all asset classes. Currencies are particularly important.
The most important but most difficult part is to try to anticipate the next development.
I have come to conclude that to successfully participate in the financial markets, one has to accept that anything can happen - the laws of physics do not apply! If enough people believe something it will happen.
It is also important to remember that the most money in the world is managed by intermediaries and is chasing relative performance. Thus silly situations can persist.....
